HBR: Make Decisions with a VC Mindset

Venture investors are the hidden hand behind the most innovative companies surrounding us. According to research conducted by one of us (Ilya), venture capitalists were causally responsible for the launch of one-fifth of the 300 largest U.S. public companies in existence today. They have played an essential role in unlocking the power of the internet, the mobile revolution, and now artificial intelligence in all its forms. Apple, Google, Moderna, Netflix, Airbnb, OpenAI, Salesforce, Tesla, Uber, and Zoom—these firms disrupted entire industries despite initially having fewer resources and less support and experience than their mature, successful, cash-rich competitors. All these businesses could theoretically have emerged from within an established company—but they didn’t. Instead, they were financed and shaped by VCs. Indeed, we estimate that three-quarters of the largest U.S. companies founded in the past 50 years would not have existed or achieved their current scale without VC support.

MIT Sloan: Steer Clear of Corporate Venture Capital Pitfalls

Big companies and risk capital can be awkward partners. Here’s how to get corporate venturing right.

No one needs to be told how crucial innovation is to a business’s survival in a constantly morphing landscape. Corporate venture capital (CVC) is one of three main innovation mechanisms that large companies now deploy, along with internal R&D and innovation M&As. In recent years, CVC units have become increasingly important across geographical borders, industries, and technology sectors, helping companies to stay nimble and forward-looking — and to create new growth engines. In 2022, global CVCs invested almost $100 billion in about 5,000 investment rounds of VC-backed companies.1 Over 100 new CVCs were created that year alone.

Finding “Home Run” Investments

Venture capitalists don’t mind strike-outs, so long as they get their home runs. What can stock investors learn from that approach? 

Ricky Mulvey talks with Ilya Strebulaev and Alex Dang, co-authors of “The Venture Mindset: How to Make Smarter Bets and Achieve Extraordinary Growth,” about:

  • The benefits of building an “anti-portfolio”
  • Why it pays to get outside of your own four walls
  • Lessons from a piggy bank auction

TIME: The Power of the 118-Hour Decision

Here’s how people think great things happen in Silicon Valley: A bright-eyed startup founder sketches a groundbreaking idea on a napkin. The napkin is picked up by a savvy venture capitalist. The VC glances at the sketch, gets excited, and wires millions of dollars to the young entrepreneur. And a unicorn—that is, a company that will reach the $1 billion level in value—is born.

This narrative of high stakes, fast decisions, and a risky gamble is alluringly cinematic. It’s also a myth. And for anyone who wants to be a successful founder or investor, it’s a dangerous one.

Fast Company: 4 tricks venture capitalists use to make meetings better

“I’ve searched all the parks in all the cities—and found no statues of committees,” proclaimed the famous British writer G. K. Chesterton. VCs are well aware of inefficiencies and biases in groups; they also know that these biases are particularly dangerous in a highly uncertain world. And they know that team members with prepared minds can make the right call if they design a process to avoid these blind spots. In our research and work with VCs, we observed many specific practices with which VCs equip themselves. The next time you huddle in a room with your team members, you’ll be more likely to make a better decision with these four mechanisms we have learned from VCs. 

Stanford Business: Why the “Venture Mindset” Is Not Just for Tech Investors

How venture capitalists approach risk has lessons that apply beyond Silicon Valley, according to a new book.

In most of the business world — and the world in general — the default setting is caution, consensus, and, above all, a low tolerance for bad bets. Venture capitalists are not wired this way. In their quest for the next Google, Amazon, or OpenAI, they run headlong into uncertainty and embrace contrarianism. They accept that failure is an option as they invest in deal after deal that never takes off.

The power of disruptive innovation

The power of disruptive innovation

🚫 No. You can’t take an Uber to a restaurant that sells the best Beyond Burger in town, and even if you got there, you cannot post a picture of that meal on Instagram.”

Why not? How would such a sentence make any sense? Well, it made perfect sense in 2009, when none of those things existed.

Can you believe that? It’s crazy to think how many products that we currently use every day weren’t even around just 15 years ago.

How did our lives change so dramatically in such a short time? Thanks to venture capitalists, the decision makers who had the ability to recognize the long-term advantages of thinking big.

The Fitbit on your wrist, the Tesla in your garage (or pinned to your vision board), and even the globally ubiquitous messaging service WhatsApp were all born around 2009. Yet they’ve become so woven into the fabric of our lives that we already take them for granted. Venmo has even become a verb—“just Venmo me the money.” There’s Airbnb, making travel and finding places to stay easier, more personal, and (frequently) less expensive. Nest Labs finally brought true “smart home” tech into our lives. And Zoom has completely changed how many of us work and collaborate.

Venture capitalists (VCs) made all these innovations possible by funding the companies that created them. Supporting these ideas before anyone knew if they would succeed required long-term vision and nimble thinking, characteristic of what my coauthor @Alex Dang and I call the “Venture Mindset.” Startup founders and innovators bring transformational, world-changing concepts to life, but in most cases, they become reality only after VCs find and fund them.

What lies ahead in the next 15 years? Will it be the age of AI or robotics? We don’t have a crystal ball, but we know that VCs won’t be the only drivers of disruptive innovation. Major players in big tech, financial services, and even non-profit organizations are poised to spot the next big thing. But they—and you—need the Venture Mindset to do so.

It will take a person with vision to support the next thing we can’t live without. How are you creating space for innovation in your life so that you can be part of shaping the future?

Does the venture capital industry matter for economic growth and innovation?

Today we share an important pattern that highlights the growing significance of companies backed by venture capital in today’s world.

The chart depicts the number of VC-backed companies among the top 10 US companies by market capitalization, over time. It also shows the proportion of VC-backed companies when one measures by market cap, not simply by number of companies.

Back in 2010, only two of the top 10 companies were VC-backed when they started out: Microsoft and Apple. By the first quarter of 2023, the number of VC-backed companies in top 10 had increased to seven. Microsoft and Apple were joined by Google, Amazon, Nvidia, Tesla, and Meta. Long-established non-VC-backed corporate giants—Exxon Mobil, Walmart, General Electric, Procter & Gamble, Bank of America, and JPMorgan Chase —lost their places in top 10 (Visa, which is non-VC-backed, contrary, joined the top).

A very similar and even steeper dynamic can be seen when one measures by market cap share. In 2010, the share attributable to VC-backed companies hovered around 20%, but by the first quarter of 2023, it had surged past the 80% mark. Notably, all the top 5 companies by market capitalization as of today are VC-backed.

Prior to 2010, VC-backed companies never had so much significance. The trend of VC-backed companies carving out an increasingly significant presence in the US business world has unfolded over the last two dozen years.

This is only one of many powerful illustrations on the impact of venture capital in today’s world. We investigate the role of VC every day. We would love to know your opinion about this trend and, of course, any questions you may have. Please share your thoughts in the comments section!

Thank you to the Stanford University Graduate School of Business Venture Capital Initiative team for spearheading this research.

Note: The market capitalization data used for this analysis come from Compustat and CRSP, both provided by WRDS (Wharton Research Data Services). The values for each quarter are based on the last trading day.

How to Think Like a Venture Capitalist

Venture capital is behind a huge number of today’s most successful companies. And Professor Ilya Strebulaev wanted to know: What goes on in the mind of a VC investor?

Since the 1970s, venture capitalists have backed about one-third of all large publicly traded companies started in the U.S. Think Google, Microsoft, Facebook, and Zoom. It’s clear these startup investors know how to pick winners. So how do they choose?

Strebulaev identifies what he calls “the VC mindset,” which “is very different from other financial investors’.” In their selection process, VCs put every potential investment through a rigorous vetting funnel. On average, 100 startups go in, and only one comes out.

In speaking with almost 900 VCs at over 700 firms, Strebulaev found that many are focused more on the founder than the business. “Most VCs will not invest unless they have complete trust that [the] early management team can execute on the idea,” he says. VCs know that even with a good horse, you need a great jockey to win the race.

As Strebulaev says, we all can benefit from the VC mindset by doing research before making decisions, experimenting, and keeping an open mind. “That’s how you win big in business, and the same is true in life,” he says.

To the French leaders who would like to promote innovation

When Ilya Strebulaev spoke on the “unicorn” panel at the major French tech conference Vivatech in July, they discussed the plans of the French leaders to have many VC-backed unicorns in France soon. He mentioned that a major challenge for France is not just the lack of unicorns but the lack of any major recently created companies. Have you heard of a French Google, or a French Amazon, or a French Netflix, he asked the audience.

The evidence speaks for itself. His team and Ilya took top 10 US companies by market cap and top 10 French companies by market cap as of August 2023. They carefully explored the history of every single company.

  • 7 of top 10 US companies were VC-backed.
  • None of top 10 French companies were VC-backed.
  • 7 of top 10 US companies were founded within the last 49 years.
  • None of top 10 French companies were founded within the last 49 years
  • The youngest US company in top 10 is 19 years old.
  • The youngest French company in top 10 is 50 years old.
  • The mean (median) US company in top 10 was founded in 1963 (1985).
  • The mean (median) French company in top 10 was founded in 1888 (1878) (not in 1988 and 1978!).

We can and should discuss the factors behind such dramatic differences and the trade-offs between stability and growth, mobility and rigidity, culture of innovation and traditions that such differences bring. When we speak to regulators and leaders, whether on panels or workshops, we spend a lot of time covering all these topics.

One might argue that the number of unicorns does not necessarily define the overall state of the (innovation) economy. A country might have a lot of small and mid-sized businesses that boost economic growth but are overlooked in unicorn and VC-focused research.

However, consider these important trends that echo my concerns.

The average US GDP growth between 1975 and 2022 was around 6% annually, while France’s GDP growth for the same period was around 4.4% annually.

Then, according to the World Bank data, the USA has 802 patent applications per million people in 2020. In France the equivalent number is 4 times lower: 198 patent applications per million people.

To the French leaders who would like to promote entrepreneurship and innovation: please mention these statistics to President Macron when you chat with him next time.

How do you interpret the differences between US and French growth, innovations, age of top companies? What should we do about it – if anything at all? Please share your thoughts in the comment section below.

Notes:

  • For mergers and acquisitions, the founding year is determined by the main acquiring party or by the oldest of the two companies in case of the merger of equals.
  • Data about the US and French GDP was taken from data.worldbank.org.

Thank you to the Stanford University Graduate School of Business Venture Capital Initiative for support.